Two-thirds Thoughts

[JohnC]

Setting aside last season’s early finish, in the previous five seasons, an average of ninety points has been enough to secure second place. Sixth place has required, on average, seventy-two points. We are on schedule to reach ninety-three points. A point a game (relegation form, actually) over the remaining sixteen games would see us finish with seventy-seven points.

A Rest is as Good as a Change
Since our enforced mid-season break, our record is:
P 11 W8 D2 L1 F 22 A 7 GD 15 Pts 26 PPG 2.36

Before we start thinking that this is otherworldly form, here is our first-quarter record:
P11 W8 D1 L 2 F 21 A 9 GD 12 Pts 25 PPG 2.27
Note of caution: although we sat in first place after eleven games, our next eight fixtures yielded only eight points; we need to avoid a repeat of that.

Our record after thirty games last season was
P 30 W 14 D 7 L9 F 56 A 37 GD 19 Pts 49 PPG1.63
Today, our record is
P 30 W 19 D 4 L 7 F51 A 26 GD 25 Pts 61 PPG 2.0

Apart from having scored five fewer goals (Eisa’s goals haven’t been fully replaced), in every category, we’re in a significantly better position than we were at this point last season.

Discipline
Thompson doesn’t have a booking in his last six games. A little worryingly, Beevers has picked up his sixth caution, while Kent, Taylor and Dembele have five. I'm not quite sure how the imminent amnesty affects them. (Do cautions in all competitions count towards suspension?)

The breaks of the game continue to go our way. Wigan hit the post, then surrendered a soft penalty to lose the game. We can file the Wigan game with those against Fleetwood, Hull, Lincoln and Ipswich (A) as instances of games from which we emerged with more than we may have deserved. The opposite side of that ledger – the ‘we wuz robbed’ column – is pleasingly blank. I can’t even remember many recent instances of us hitting the frame of the goal or being denied by contentious refereeing decisions. I thought Beevers was lucky to avoid a straight red card for what looked like a two-footed tackle against Wigan.
Even the postponement of the Blackpool game looks a little helpful, given that they’ve won four of their last five games.

Paying the Penalty
We’ve scored, directly and indirectly, from five of the six penalties we’ve been awarded. By comparison, Lincoln have been awarded thirteen penalties in L1 this season. Pleasingly, they scored two penalties at Plymouth and still managed to lose.

Top Scorers
JC-H has twenty-one L1 goals. After our thirtieth game last season, Ivan Toney had nineteen. Encouragingly, JC-H has started to score in the last quarter of games.

Fixture Congestion. Last season, we played our thirtieth L1 fixture on February 1.

Cornered
From my half-term report:
‘It might not be a bad idea to put a defender on the back post at corners – scarcely an innovative idea, but one to which we seem averse.’
I didn’t see anything in the Wigan game to make me change my mind.

Fitness and Availability
So far we've avoided significant injuries to key players, for which our medical and conditioning staff must presumably take a lot of credit. With Taylor's likely three-game absence at the end of March, there's a big opportunity for Hamilton.

The Pitch
It now seems unlikely that it's going to affect our campaign adversely. Even if it starts to play more unpredictably in the drier weather, we're still more familiar with it than are our visiting opponents.

[Wilco]

My thoughts are that I can’t be bothered to read all that

[ashman]

My thoughts are that I can’t be bothered to read all that

Spot on!

[bristleposh]

Well I did read it, it doesn’t say much, for example we are currently four points clear at the top, 5 points clear of the team in third who have played two games more than us, and nine points clear of the next contenders who’ve played the same number of games as us. From this position we really need to implode to avoid automatic promotion.

[tonyp]

From this position we really need to implode to avoid automatic promotion.

Does losing every game 2-0 (as you predict) count as imploding?

[stumpy]

Good analysis...we will win the league at a canter...almost impossible not to given the sale of Toney and acquisition of JCH, Szmodics, Jack Taylor and holding onto Dembele....add in Eisa and Brown and that's millions of pounds in a division where most are in survival mode after a year of Covid....the sale of Toney was a lifeline and we used the money well...

[ashman]

From this position we really need to implode to avoid automatic promotion.

Does losing every game 2-0 (as you predict) count as imploding?

No, that is just bristle being superstitious, as are many football fans, and he will not change his prediction while Posh continue to win!

[Steamy Nin]

I think the Sunderland away game might fall into the "we wuz robbed" category and with the way Sunderland are going at the moment, I hope it doesn't prove to be significant.

[ashman]

I think the Sunderland away game might fall into the "we wuz robbed" category and with the way Sunderland are going at the moment, I hope it doesn't prove to be significant.

I just hope that bristle continues 'making a fool of himself' most of the way into May!

[bristleposh]

I think the Sunderland away game might fall into the "we wuz robbed" category and with the way Sunderland are going at the moment, I hope it doesn't prove to be significant.

I just hope that bristle continues 'making a fool of himself' most of the way into May!

Have I ever let you down

[Gaz_Miller]

I think the Sunderland away game might fall into the "we wuz robbed" category and with the way Sunderland are going at the moment, I hope it doesn't prove to be significant.

That result shouldn't matter now. If we blow automatic promotion from here, we can ONLY blame ourselves. Not dodgy decisions, suspensions, injuries or a poor playing surface.

We MUST go up from this position.

[ashman]

I think the Sunderland away game might fall into the "we wuz robbed" category and with the way Sunderland are going at the moment, I hope it doesn't prove to be significant.

That result shouldn't matter now. If we blow automatic promotion from here, we can ONLY blame ourselves. Not dodgy decisions, suspensions, injuries or a poor playing surface.

We MUST go up from this position.

Once again showing your complete ignorance of football and its outcomes!

[Gaz_Miller]

I think the Sunderland away game might fall into the "we wuz robbed" category and with the way Sunderland are going at the moment, I hope it doesn't prove to be significant.

That result shouldn't matter now. If we blow automatic promotion from here, we can ONLY blame ourselves. Not dodgy decisions, suspensions, injuries or a poor playing surface.

We MUST go up from this position.

Once again showing your complete ignorance of football and its outcomes!

Where do you think we should finish from this position then?

This is going to be worth waiting for

[tonyp]

that is just bristle being superstitious, as are many football fans, and he will not change his prediction while Posh continue to win!

It is not a prediction and bristle is not superstitious (he told me so).

[tonyp]

If we blow automatic promotion from here, we can ONLY blame ourselves. Not dodgy decisions, suspensions, injuries or a poor playing surface.

We MUST go up from this position.

We SHOULD go up from this position. But, like it or not, dodgy decisions, suspensions or injuries CAN have an effect on our final position.
I expect we will achieve automatic promotion but if things go wrong we might have to make do with winning the play-off Final at Wembley.